Jared Cohen

Jared Cohen

There are many who will say that Rouhani's victory in Iran is a surprise, that he is a moderate, and that this means there is finally someone the west can negotiate with on the nuclear program. I do not fall in this camp. Instead, I think the regime will use Rouhani to play for time, creating a false sense of optimism about changes on the horizon and voices of moderation that get everyone back to the negotiating table. But ultimately, Rouhani will have no real power and no ability to shift Khamanei's stance. Khamanei will pull the rug out from underneath Rouhani at just the right time and like Khatami in 1999, Rouhani will have no choice but to comply. As a cleric in Iran he benefits from the current system, even if he claims to be a moderate. Khamanei shows no evidence that he is inclined towards a deal on the nuclear program, something which is only more true after he saw what happened to Gaddaffi. So my take is that while I prefer Rouhani to Ahmadenijad, there is a real danger in embracing this election as a sign of change. This happened in 1990 with Rafsanjani and then again in 1997 with Khatami. There are two lessons we should learn: 1) These guys are all on the same team and part of the same establishment; and 2) The regime is dangerously good at playing for time

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